Being wrong on the internet often does not come with many consequences, arguably some people have made a living off it. The ability to self publish and receive immediate feedback can be somewhat intoxicating. This intoxication can fuel what Daniel Kahneman referred to as “the most significant of cognitive biases” – Overconfidence Bias [1]. A classic example of this is the study by Ola Svenson in which 93% of American drivers claimed to better than average [2]; statistically impossible. In real life overconfidence has a track record of getting people into trouble, one only has to look back to the 2008 financial crisis to see examples of some of the supposed “smartest” people in the world getting things monumentally wrong [link]. Coming across the tweet below by Robert Grant made think about overconfidence bias in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

In the middle of a pandemic, knowledge is in short supply. The other thing seemingly lacking is the realisation of what we don’t know. This is perhaps no better exemplified then Jared Kushner reportedly takings a leading role in the USA response to COVID-19 [link]. Anyone who has been tasked with leading Middle East peace negotiations, who then adds solving the USA’s opioid crisis and coordinating the response to a pandemic to their job portfolio, at best is exhibiting overconfidence boarding on delusional. Especially if that persons previous job qualifications were that of a property developer who has a questionable reputation [link]. Psychology has a term for this, the Dunning-Kruger effect [3]. This cognitive bias in which people with low ability in a task struggle to recognise their lack of ability in said task. 

Dealing with an issue as highly emotive and serious as a pandemic I believe it is an area where caution is better than bravado. Sharing and commenting on the internet usually has little consequence but in this area, the spread of misinformation, myths and noise has the potential to be deadly. Let’s all follow the lead of Robert Grant and acknowledge that being a true expert is not only knowing stuff, but also recognising what you don’t know.

Being aware of your own overconfidence and the Dunning-Kruger effect may help you make more informed decisions not only in life but also when attempting to deal with the barrage of news and opinions we face daily, both online and in real life. Now more then ever this could be a life-changing skill. The evidence shows that knowledge alone can not protect us from overconfidence, in fact, there is evidence to show it can make us more prone, a more practical heuristic to use is to ask yourself “what if I’m wrong?” and when it comes to pandemics “am I an epidemiologists?”

 

 

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1. Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow (2011)

2. Ola Svenson, Are We Less Risky and More Skilful than Our Fellow Drivers?, Acta Psychologica (1981)

3. Justin Kruger & David Dunning, Unskilled and Unaware of It: How Difficulties in Recognizing One’s Own Incompetence Lead to Inflated Self-Assessments, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (1999)